This two-page spreadsheet provides a quick analysis of 2024 grain farm data for 18 farms participating in the Lincoln Trail area of the Kentucky Farm Business Management program.

Crop Yields and Performance

Corn Yield was down significantly: Lincoln Trail crop farms averaged 173 bushels/acre for 2024. Average yield in 2023 was 199 bushels, and the 5-year Olympic average was 189 bushel. Only 39% of Lincoln Trail farms achieved more than 170 bushels/acre compared to 81% of all KFBM crop farms. KFBM statewide averaged 194 bushels per acre in 2024

Soybean Yield was also down significantly: Lincoln Trail soybean yields averaged 48 bushels/acre, down from 56 in 2023 and the Olympic average 57 bushels/acre. Average yields were only slightly lower than KFBM statewide yields, but 50% achieved more than 50 bushels/acre compared to 81% of KFBM crop farms.

Financial Performance

The data suggests a Profitability Crisis due to revenue challenges:

• Crop Returns: $671/acre (down from $842 in 2023).  KFBM crop returns per acre were $812 (down from $1,017 in 2023).
• Net Farm Income for 2024: -$19,094 (average loss). Previous Years: $79,108 (2023), $296,915 (2022), $186,427 (Olympic average). KFBM average for 2024 was a similar $20,522 loss.
• Only 38% of Lincoln Trail crop farms had positive net farm income in 2024, while 43% had losses between $1-$100,000. By comparison, 27% of KFBM crop farms reported net farm losses.

Farm Structure and Costs

These Lincoln Trail farms are smaller, averaging 1,470 tillable acres compared to the KFBM state average 2,557 acres. This 74% difference in scale appears to provide some operational advantages for the larger farms. Lincoln Trail tillable acres are split 21% owned and 79% rented. Only 6.5% is crop shared. KFBM farms are split 26% owned, 48% cash rented, and 26/% share rented.

Cost pressures have eased some, but operating costs are still high compared to gross revenue.

Input Costs were down compared to last year:

• Seed, chemical, and fertilizer cost/acre was $282.53, down from last year’s $329.99.
• Machinery cost was $216.23/acre.
• Cash Rent dropped from $193.05/acre (2023) to $147.78/acre.
• Capital Purchases averaged $149,079 in 2024, down from $269k in 2023.

Operating expenses consumed 88% of gross income, indicating tight profit margins.

Income before depreciation ($51,998) fell 24% lower than last year, and was $$609,879 lower than the 2022 high ($612,877).

Lincoln Trail farms show notably lower input costs for seed, chemical, and fertilizer at $282.53 per acre versus KFBM’s $354.81 per acre - a 20% difference. This cost advantage partially offsets their yield disadvantage.

Market Conditions

Prices declined: 

• Old crop corn: $4.66 (vs $6.52 in 2023)
• Old crop soybeans: $12.47 (vs $15.13 in 2023)
• New crop prices were even lower.

Lincon Trail and KFBM farms received similar commodity prices, indicating they're operating in the same market environment. The financial struggles appear to be driven more by cost-price squeeze than regional commodity price differences.

Financial Health Indicators

The financial ratios suggest solid solvency with a 27% debt-to-asset ratio, though 2024 net farm income ratio (-4.3%) and return on assets (-.08%) were negative. Sixty-two percent of farms experienced a loss in 2024; 19% lost more than $100,000. 

Key Takeaways

KFBM data suggests 2024 was a challenging year across Kentucky crop farms, with both regional and statewide operations facing negative returns despite reasonable yields and stable commodity prices. 

1. Severe Profitability Crisis

   2024 represents a dramatic reversal from profitable years, with the average Lincoln Trail farm losing nearly $20,000. This is primarily driven by lower commodity prices combined with sustained high input costs.

2. Yield Disappointment

   Both corn and soybean yields fell well below recent averages, compounding the price pressure. 

3. Cost-Price Squeeze

   While commodity prices fell 25-30% from 2023 peaks, input costs remained elevated at over $280/acre, creating an unsustainable margin compression.

4. High Operating Leverage

   With 73% of land rented and high fixed costs, farms have limited ability to adjust expenses quickly when revenues decline.

5. Capital Investment Pullback

   Farmers reduced capital purchases by 45% in 2024, indicating defensive financial management and delayed reinvestment.

6. Financial Stress Indicators

   Nearly two-thirds of farms had negative or minimal profits

   Operating expense ratio of 88% leaves little margin for error

   Return on assets of less than 1% is well below sustainable levels

7. Regional Vulnerability

   This data suggests grain farms in the Lincoln Trail region are experiencing significant financial stress, with the majority struggling to maintain profitability under current market conditions.